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For sports and spread betting, Spreadex offers these services 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This means that no matter when you have an issue, you should be able to resolve it quite easily. What is good about the Spreadex phone-based customer service is that it offers a number of different phone numbers — so depending on where you are in. Fasi Sports App now available from Apple Store and Google Play.This page contains links to Fasi Sports App available on Apple Store and Googler Play.

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Political Spread Betting

Where to Spread Bet on the UK General Election?

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Politics Analysis & News

Election Day: Time to Pick the Best of a Bad Bunch

Just had a chat with the Financial Spreads dealing desk, they will be running their election markets until midday tomorrow.

Apparel

They are also taking big bets with clients on for +£100/seat. that puts my £5/seat bet to shame.

Although, note that they are now only taking trades over the phone.

Exit Polls at 10pm Tonight

Ipsos MORI plans to publish its exit poll at 10pm, the poll covers 20,000 people in +100 constituencies.

It’s certainly not 100% accurate but there could be a healthy move in the FTSE 100, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD (and election markets) as the poll is announced.

Spreadex Sports Apparel

Election Markets Open Until Midday 9 June?

Although, as the results become clearer, the market will settle down and the width of the spreads could easily cover the result. i.e. you’ll lose whether you buy or sell

90 Seat Conservative Majority?

With 650 seats in parliament and the current market at 370 Conservative seats that suggests Mrs May will end up with a healthy 90 seat majority.

If 90 seats is indeed realistic, just imagine what her majority would have been with a well run campaign.

Prices as of 12.30pm, 8 June 2017:

Conservatives Up 10 Seats Since Yesterday

The seats markets for the Conservative party and Labour party remain fluid.

The Tories are up 10 seats on yesterday’s quote, i.e. they’ve climbed to 371 – 375 from 361 – 365.

Labour have dropped to 195.5 -199.5 from 202 – 206

The SNP seats quote has barely moved for the last month.

There’s little love for the Lib Dems although I’ve just had a small buy of their seats @ 12.

They currently have 9 MPs and so I think the downside is limited. although judging by Tim Farron’s election campaign. the upside is looking pretty limited too. I could well lose on the width of the spread.

Financial Spreads as of 5.30pm, 7 June 2017:

Spread Betting Arbitrage Opportunity

These are rare and looks like the firms are evening up their books.

Arbitrage 1) Labour Seats Arb

Buy Labour seats @ 203.5 with Financial Spreads
Sell Labour seats @ 208 with IG

Arbitrage 2) Conservative Seats Arb

Buy Conservative seats @ 361 with IG
Sell Conservative seats @ 365 with Financial Spreads

The Highest Seats Quote Yet for Labour

Labour Seats are currently trading at 202 to 206, a little off their earlier highs of 205 to 209.

There’s still no respite for the Tories or Lib Dems. Neither party seems to be getting much love (see prices below).

More Activity in the Political Spread Betting Markets

A few weeks ago, the prices might only change about once a day. if you look at the hourly charts now, you’ll see more frequent price moves.

That would suggest that these markets are seeing more trades (and they’re no longer just a PR market for the spread betting companies).

General Election Price Update

Financial Spreads: 1.45pm, 6 June 2017:

Election Market Update

Firstly, and putting all the nonsense of punting on election markets to once side, after another shocking attack in London on Saturday, our sincere condolences to all those who have lost loved ones, been hurt other or are otherwise suffering.

Conservatives Improve

It’s sombre morning here in the office but here’s a quick price update from Financial Spreads, Sporting Index and Spreadex – see screenshots below from 11.30am, 5 Jun.

The Conservative party, who are normally the ‘law and order party’, have gone up 7 seats from Friday’s quote of 363 – 367 seats to 370 – 364.

In the seesaw between the two main parties, Labour has lost most of those seats dropping 199 – 203 to 194.5 – 198.5.

Caution: Wide Spreads

As usual with election betting, watch out for the wide spreads – Sporting Index and Spreadex are still offering markets with a 6 point spread on the main parties.

Financial Spreads are more reasonable with a 4 point spread but that’s still not that tight.

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Big Bets Against Labour Party Seats

FinancialSpreads.com have said they’ve got some big trades against Labour including one client who’s shorted Labour seats at 175 for a cheeky £500/seat.

I.e. their client will lose £500 for every seat that Labour gets above 175 and vice versa. they’ll win £500 for every seat under 175.

E.g. if Labour get today’s estimate of 201 seats, the person will lose = (201 – 175) x £500 = 26 seats x £500/seat = £13,000 loss.

E.g. if Labour get the 5 May estimate of 154, the person be down the pub after winning = (175 – 154) x £500 = 21 seats x £500/seat = £10,500 profit.

That’s a pretty big bet.

The firm’s max political bet size is actually £500/seat . but you can also bet a more reasonable £1/seat. (You’ll also get £1/seat with the other firms offering this market).

Election Classic

Jeremy Corbyn is doing an election classic. He’s promising the earth and the younger members of the electorate are lapping it up.

E.g. a simple Labour manifesto pledge

“We will start by bringing our railways back into public ownership

Labour will invest in a modern, integrated, accessible and sustainable transport system that is reliable and affordable.

That’s all well and good but he seems to be forgetting that the trains were poor when they were run by the Government in the past. and the tax payer picked some very large bills in order to subsidise that poor service.

That’s a problem for another day though. and at the moment the Labour party seems to have a new energy.

Impressive Labour Rebound

The Labour seats market has moved up by an impressive 50 seats.

I.e. from a low around 150 – 154 seats to the current spread of 199 – 203 seats.

Spread Betting General Election Price Update

Financial Spreads: 1.45m, 1 June 2017:

Lib Dem Spread Betting Market Just Collapses

As the chart below testifies, the Lib Dem market is in freefall.

On 25 April they were forecast to get 29 – 31 seats, up from the 9 seats they currently have.

Prior to yesterday’s TV debate, the spread had already crashed to 15 – 17 seats.

And now they’ve lost another 2 seats. That’s careless.

UKIP Steady at Zero Seats

The market for UKIP seats market is holding steady around the 0.01 – 0.3 level.

I.e. the price suggests that Paul Nuttall’s motley crew won’t be getting any seats in the House of Commons this time around.

Who say’s the electorate is stupid?

Small Bounce Back for Jezza

Jeremy Corbyn’s party is reaping the rewards of the Lib Dem collapse (or helping to cause it).

On 11 May Labour were trading at 150 – 154 (see story below).

It looks like his retro-manifesto has gone down well with the party faithful and many of the younger potential voters (who weren’t alive in the ’70s and don’t realise top rate income tax hit a lose-lose 83%).

The Labour party seats market has now moved 20 seats higher to 170 – 174.

Their manifesto has some well intentioned ideas but it proves again that Jeremy Corbyn is as ill-suited to office as Donald Trump. Luckily, Corbyn’s also as unelectable as Kinnock.

It’s a shame the Labour party don’t have a more Blairite candidate who can keep the Tory party in check.

UK Spread Betting Market Price Update

Financial Spreads: 3pm, 19 May 2017:

Tashgheel 8/1 9/2

UK Election 2017 Price Update:

Below prices from Financial Spreads and IG.

There’s been no discernable change in the prices despite the Labour Party draft manifesto leak.

Perhaps that says a lot about the current perception of the Labour party.

Financial Spreads: 9.30, 12 May 2017:

IG Prices: 9.30, 12 May 2017:

IG’s current price of 91 – 97 looks too good to be true.

For me, it’s an easy buy @ 97.

But. on closer inspection, i.e. reading the market information, you will see the IG Conservative Majority market is not a “seats” market.

It’s basically a binary market. It will be either close at 0 if the Conservative’s don’t get a majority or 100 if they do get a majority.

As always, if something looks too good to be true with a market, re-check what you think you are trading.

Still Tempted?

If you buy at 97 the maximum you can win is 3x your stake (100-97=3).

That might still be tempting but note that you would lose 97 x your stake if the Tories don’t get a majority.

That’s a very nasty downside.

2017 vs 2015 Election Market Nightmare for Labour

Jeremy Corbyn may have said “I think we can spend too much time worrying about polls” but he’s got to be a little concerned.

If he doesn’t want to look at the polls then he certainly won’t want to look at the spread betting markets.

It’s interesting to look back at the 2015 ‘seats’ markets when “Red Ed” was considered “unelectable” but you also had UKIP eating into much of the Conservative heartland.

A typical pre-election Conservative seats quote floated around the 280 – 286 level and a Labour party seats market would hover around 275 – 281.

The two main parties were pretty much even in the spread betting markets.

Labour is now about 250 seats behind:

General Election Seats2015 Election
(Typical Spread)
2017 Election
(Typical Spread)
Conservative Seats280 – 286398-402
Labour Seats275 – 281150-154

Jezza might want to keep his head in the sand for a little longer.

Good Political Betting Blogs

There are two different blogs that are worth looking at:

  • PoliticalBetting.com – plenty of short and sweet views along with poll updates
  • ElectoralCalculus.co.uk – less focused on spread betting but good for data

UK General Election Spread Betting Markets

As we head towards the last UK budget before the general election, Alastair McCaig from IG discusses the trading options available for those looking to take a position.

One new binary market asks whether Alex Salmond will be part of the next cabinet, whilst another considers whether there will be a second general election in 2015.

How to Trade on FX Ahead of the UK General Election

In the run up to the election, IG asks Stephen Gallo, from BMO Capital Markets, about what elements to consider when attempting to capitalise on the political uncertainty inspired volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

Despite the ECB also producing its own QE programme, Mr Gallo believes that EUR/GBP will be supported by the £0.65 level.

UK Election Betting Update

Below, a quick look at how Spreadex is pricing up the market.

Note, if you are logging into your Spreadex account, you need to log into ‘Sports’ rather than ‘Financials’ to access these prices.

Spreadex Sports App

Interesting to see that UKIP are more likely to get an overall majority (100/1) than Nick Clegg’s lot (500/1). Having said that, when fixed odds prices get to 100/1 they are pretty spurious to me.

It wouldn’t be difficult to find a bookie offering odds of 100/1 or 500/1 for Elvis being found alive.

Realistic Overall Majority?

In a bar the other night I heard some of those clever lads at Goldman Sachs saying support for Labour and UKIP will drop significantly and the Conservatives would get an overall majority.

The market isn’t forecasting that though.

For all the negative commentary around Red Ed, the spread on Conservative seats is 280 – 286, only a dash ahead of Labour’s 275 – 281 seats.

That’s way off the 326 seats needed for a majority.

The fixed odds ‘No Overall Majority’ is also priced at 1/5, so the current market suggests that we’re in for another coalition.

Spread Betting Prices

General Election SeatsSpread
Conservative Seats280 – 286
Labour Seats275 – 281
SNP Seats36 – 39
Liberal Democrats Seats25 – 28
UKIP Seats5.5 – 7.5

Note: 650 seats available, the Speakers seat and seats in Northern Ireland do not count towards this market.

Spreadex sports apparel

Binary Election Prices

Most SeatsBinary Spread
Conservatives55.5 – 62
Labour38.4 – 44.5
UKIP0 – 1
Liberal Democrats0 – 0.2

Note: These binary trades make up (close) at 100 if the party is named as having the most seats, otherwise they make up at 0.

Fixed Odds Election Prices

Most SeatsFixed Odds
No Overall Majority1/5
Labour Majority14/1
Conservative Majority9/2
UKIP Majority100/1
Liberal Democrat Majority500/1
Overall MajorityFixed Odds
Conservatives8/13
Labour5/4
UKIP100/1
Liberal Democrats500/1

UK General Election Spread Betting Example

They can also speculate on voter turnout, the estimated turnout looks pretty miserable at around 62%.

Looking at FinancialSpreads.com you can spread bet on the number of seats that the Conservatives will win.

In this case, they have priced their Conservative Seats market at 397 – 401, i.e. suggesting that the Conservatives will win 397 – 401 seats.

Therefore, you could spread bet on the Conservatives winning:

  • PaddyPower 11/2 3/1
  • When spread betting on a “Seats” market you are simply betting in £x per seat.

    If you risked £5 per seat and the Conservative Seats market moved by 21 seats then that would alter your P&L by £105. £5 per seat x 21 seats = £105.

    UK Election – Conservative Seats Example

    If you “buy” the market you will make a profit of £4 for every seat more than 401 that the Conservatives win.

    Of course, such a bet also means that you will lose £4 for every seat that the Conservatives get less than 401.

    Put another way, should you buy a spread bet then your profits (or losses) are calculated by taking the difference between the final price of the market and the price you bought the spread at. You then multiply that price difference by the stake.

    If the Tories exceed expectations with a Tony Blair-like landslide and won 441 seats, you’d make a profit:

    Profit = (Closing Price – Opening Price) x stake
    Profit = (441 – 401) x £4 per seat stake
    Profit = 40 x £4 per seat stake
    Profit = £160 profit

    Trading on financial markets, or political markets, is rarely straightforward.

    In this example, you had bet that Theresa May’s party would win more than 401 seats. Of course, they could disappoint on election night.

    If Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party did better than expected, the Conservatives might only win 368 seats. If so, you would end up losing this trade.

    Loss = (Closing Price – Opening Price) x stake
    Loss = (368 – 401) x £4 per seat stake
    Loss = -33 x £4 per seat stake
    Loss = -£132 loss

    Note: Conservative Seats market accurate as of 11- May-2017. Other firms may also offer this market.

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    About this page:

    Political Spread Betting
    This guide to political spread betting reviews how to trade on the outcome of the UK General Election, which firms offer election spread betting markets, plus the latest news for. » read from top.

    Not Found The request was not found. Check the location and try again. Have you ever wondered how bookies work and what they do all day? What does a typical day look like as a sports trader?
    There is never really a typical day for me as shifts can vary so much day-to-day and weekend-to-weekend, covering multiple sports as I do. I will start off getting in about an hour before my first game. I will have done all the main pricing the day before so this will give me time to check any alterations to team news, updates to weather forecasts and any positions or liabilities we have taken in the games I am trading. Weather is the big one to keep on top of, so if it’s a wet day, I will spend a lot of my day trying to source pictures or radars of ground or an area near to ground before we get TV pictures through.:

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